Polls
February 25, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll conducted for the Saskatoon Star Phoenix finds a dead heat between the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP in the upcoming Saskatoon Meewasin by election. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.71%, 19 times out of 20.
“We’ve seen quite the turnaround for the Saskatchewan party in this contest,” said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. “In our last poll, we pointed out the low results for the Saskatchewan Party where underpinned by low support among younger voters who were registering high undecided rates. It looks like those voters have made up their minds and decided to stick with the government they know.”
”At the same time there has been movement in favourability ratings for Ryan Meili and Brent Penner. Penner’s favourability has increased 8 percentage points while Meili’s favourability has fallen slightly. More significantly however, Meili’s unfavourability has increased by 9 percentage points.”
“Clearly the local campaign that the Saskatchewan Party has been waging in Meewasin is having an effect not just on voting preference but also on voters’ perceptions of the candidates.”
“By elections in Canada are notoriously tough to poll – particularly because low voter turnout makes modelling outcomes very difficult. On the surface, we would say the NDP has an advantage since the Saskatchewan Party leads among the 18-34 voting set, those who are typically the least likely to vote in these contests. But the reality may be that this race is won or lost at the advance polls and that it will come down to which party and candidate has the best organization.
“No result here on election day would surprise me at this point. Given the margin of error and by election turnout we will truly all have to wait until election night to see what happens,” finished Valentin.
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Mainstreet – Saskatoon Meewasin Feb 23 2017 by Mainstreet on Scribd
