Polls
March 14, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a dead heat in Winnipeg between the Progressive Conservatives and NDP. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.33%, 19 times out of 20.
“The Manitoba election has been largely unremarkable with the Manitoba PCs dominating in support in polls dating back to late 2015. This signals the first real chink in the armour of Brian Pallister and the PCs with support dropping drastically in seat rich Winnipeg,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “A virtual tie in support among voters in Winnipeg exists between the NDP at 34% and the PCs at 32% with a strong 26% for the Manitoba Liberals. Among all voters there are now more undecided voters than before. Combined with the drop in PC support it’s now looking like a real race.”
Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 43% (-7%), NDP 27% (+6%), Liberals 24% (+1%), Greens 7% (+1%)
“The Manitoba Liberals remained flat but continued to show strong signs of growth potential among leaning undecided voters despite a bad news week. Meanwhile, the NDP who were almost written off two months ago have shown signs of a resurgence in support, although it is concentrated in Winnipeg. With undecided voters increasing at this stage, it could signal a shift in this campaign to a more competitive one than what was expected just a few weeks ago,” continued Maggi.
“The danger for the NDP is that 47% of Manitobans want their Premier to have honesty and integrity. Only 9% of voters who see this as a key attribute for Premier are currently voting for the NDP. The top issue in Manitoba is taxes (26%), another issue the NDP is weak on (only 4% of voters for whom taxes is the top issue plan to vote for the NDP). This is a very challenging climate.”
“Ultimately we will want to see whether this trend continues. We will be releasing polling about once per week in Manitoba so we will have numerous opportunities to confirm and track further movement,” he finished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
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