Polls
- The federal Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau, have a narrow two-point lead over the opposition Conservatives.
- Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 37.2% support (-2.8% from Mainstreet’s June survey), while the Conservatives, with their leader Erin O’Toole, have 31.7% (+0.4%). Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has 16.2% (+2.9%). In comparison, the Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet has 5.1% nationally, with 21.9% in Quebec (-0.2). The Greens, led by Annamie Paul, has 4.7% (-2.2%).
- The only change is that the Liberal lead in Ontario has now shrunk, yet they keep their large leads in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces while, again, the Conservatives are dominant in the Prairies and Alberta.
- The survey also asked Canadians which party they thought would win the most seats in the next election, whenever it might be called.
- Just under 55% of Canadians think the Liberals will win the most seats while 30% think the Conservatives will.
- Canadians are also lukewarm to the notion of having a party campaigning on income tax increases to pay off the increasing deficit accrued thanks to the pandemic. 54% said they would not vote for a party that promised to increase taxes.
- Among the nearly 24% of Canadians who would vote for a party promising income tax increases, 53.2% said that they think that only the wealthiest Canadians should pay more taxes.
- Finally, the survey found that the Trudeau government’s handling of Indigenous policy since the discovery of Indigenous children’s remains in unmarked graves at residential schools could negatively affect Liberal chances in the upcoming election.
- One-third said that they are less likely to vote Liberal, while 43.2% said that the government’s Indigenous policy would have no effect on their chances of voting Liberal in the next election.
