Polls
March 22, 2015 (Ottawa, ON) – Mainstreet Research’s Calgary Greenway poll was proven an accurate representation – demonstrating again the capability and accuracy of its public polling.
By elections are notoriously hard to predict and Mainstreet was the only independent pollster to publish a poll of Calgary Greenway. In particular, turnout was very low for this by election, making it even more difficult to predict.
The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll, conducted March 9th, correctly forecast a tight 4-way race.
Mainstreet projected: 31% for the PCs (Actual: 27.73%), 24% for the NDP (Actual: 20.17%) 22% for the Wildrose: (Actual: 23.68%) and 21% for the Liberals (Actual: 22.63%).
The margin of error was +/- 4.26%. This puts all results within the margin of error.
“As we have said before, by elections are notoriously difficult to predict and the Calgary Greenway by election did not disappoint in that regard. Turnout was substantially lower than anticipated,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.
“We are tremendously proud of our track record in Alberta and are proud to stand behind our Calgary Greenway poll. We did not try to use social media data or other pseudo-polling methods to predict the race in Calgary Greenway. We used real data, a proven methodology and were responsible in our release.”
“Albertans have seen time and time again that Mainstreet is a responsible and accurate polling firm. Albertans trust our results.”
“Tonight’s results bring a sigh of relief for the PC party. This was a race they had to win – and they did. This was a good night for the Liberals too though we’ve seen before that by elections are not good indicators of what might happen in a general election. This result will certainly help the Liberals with fundraising.”
“The New Democrats came in fourth which must be disappointing especially in advance of the federal NDP convention soon to be held in Edmonton.”
“Tonight’s by election result could have long term ramifications for uniting the right. The PCs have proven they can win on their own in Calgary. Many would add up the Wildrose and PC votes to show what a combined ‘right’ vote might be. They could also add up the Liberal and PC votes to show what a ‘middle’ vote could be. Neither would be correct, but these results will lead to many discussions in the province,” finished Maggi.
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