Polls
23 September 2018 (Ottawa ON) – The New Brunswick Liberals have a six point lead as New Brunswickers head to the polls on Monday.
“Premier Gallant has a smaller lead than what he won with in 2014,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The Liberal vote is very ineffecient and the lead they have at this moment may not be enough for Gallant to win re-election on Monday.”
The survey polled 526 New Brunswickers, 18 years and older on September 20th and 21st. The margin of error of this poll is +/- 4.26% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 35.2% support while the PCs led by Blaine Higgs has 28.8%. The Greens led by David Coon currently enjoy 16% while the People’s Alliance with Kris Austin at the helm has 14.8%. The NDP led by Jennifer McKenzie has 3.2%.
The Liberals have leads in every region in New Brunswick, but the PCs are competitive in both the Fredericton area and in the areas outside of Moncton and Fredericton.
The survey also asked respondents if they had a favourable or unfavourable impression of each of the five party leader. The poll found that New Brunswickers only rated David Coon positively.
“The fact that more New Brunswickers view four out of the five party leaders negatively is a big sign of voter ambivalence,” continued Maggi. “Whoever wins on Monday is certainly not being embraced warmly by the voters.”
Gallant has a -3.6% net rating, while Higgs has a -6.8% rating. Coon has a +4.6% rating. McKenzie and Austin has a -25.5% and -9% net rating respectively.
“Since Coon is the only leader with a net positive rating, there is a chance that the Greens outperform our numbers,” Maggi concluded.
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