The latest poll from Mainstreet Research, fielded from March 8th -10th 2024 shows Liberal Party support under Justin Trudeau at a historic low in Mainstreet polling, with just 25% among decided and leaning voters. Support for the Poilievre led Conservatives also reached an all time high of 46%, a 21 point National lead. The Singh led NDP remains at similar levels as February 2024 with 15%.
The National numbers continue to look dire for the governing Liberals and looking at the demographic and regional data. even long held patterns of support appear to be fading.
Among female voters where the Trudeau Liberals have maintained strong support even until recently, the Poilievre Conservative now lead with over 37%. More female voters still support either the NDP or Liberals combined however at 46%.
Among voters over 65 years of age, where Trudeau has enjoyed substantial support historically, the Conservatives now are in a statistical tie.
Among visible minorities where Trudeau Liberals led throughout his three election victories, support has declined and Conservatives now lead among almost all ethnicities including South Asian and Black voters.
Support in Quebec and Ontario where Liberals dominated in 2015 through 2021 has also continued to decline. Conservatives now hold a lead in every region including Atlantic (12.7 points), Quebec (2.3 points), Ontario (19.4 points), and BC (27.7 points).
We asked respondents who indicated they would vote NDP, Green Bloq and Undecided whether they would consider voting differently at the next election if the Conservatives were headed to a majority Government. 29.5% said they would consider voting Liberal which could potentially boost Liberal vote share by almost 10 points.
However, only 9.4% of respondents said they would consider voting Liberal if Trudeau remained leader at the next election, reducing the potential boost from strategic voting to just over 3 points.
When asked about Chrystia Freeland (28%) , Sean Fraser (27%), or Mark Carney (28%) as Liberal leaders on a potential ballot, respondents were more likely to vote for these other candidates. The highest number of people indicated they would vote for “another Liberal MP” without being named (31%).
When asked about a generic “another Liberal” candidate, the National gap between Conservatives led by Poilievre and Liberals closed to just 10 points (41-31) revealing some resilience in the Liberal brand.
When asked about Trudeau, among all voters, 71% say they would prefer someone other than Trudeau be the Leader in the next election. Among Liberal voters, over a third say they would prefer someone other than Trudeau (35.5%). Among undecided voters, that number is just under three quarters (74.5%).
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